The price of pork in China could soon rival U.S. payrolls as the world’s most watched economic indicator. International investors are increasingly focused on domestic demand in the world’s second-largest economy as their key measure of global economic health. And there are few better ways to gauge that demand than by tracking staple food prices that directly hit discretionary consumer spending — a sector of economic activity that typically generates 40 percent of China’s annual GDP growth.
The implication is that China’s factories will ramp up output to meet rising discretionary spending power, making slower increases in food prices the most important factor boosting GDP growth and aggregate demand. Inflation is a major preoccupation for China’s ruling Communist Party, as rising prices have often been accompanied by periods of protest and social upheaval. Spikes in pork prices have constantly driven up Chinese inflation. Though pork only accounts for 3 percent of China’s consumer price index, it is the most popular meat in the country and its price has a big impact on the public’s inflationary expectations.
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